The Threat of Voter Suppression Tactics Disguised as Fraud Prevention to US Elections
TL/DR
Efforts by some Republicans to enact laws aimed at preventing voter fraud are largely unsubstantiated by statistical evidence and may suppress voter turnout, especially among minority groups.
Strict voter ID laws have been shown to widen the turnout gap between white and minority voters, and despite claims of widespread fraud, the incidence of voter fraud, particularly with mail-in ballots, is minuscule.
Restrictions on voting methods like mail-in voting, despite being framed as fraud prevention, disproportionately affect certain demographic groups and threaten the fundamental right to vote, underscoring the need for policies that ensure equal access to the ballot.
In recent years, there have been concerns about efforts by some Republicans to pass laws that may make it more difficult for certain groups to cast their vote. These efforts have been framed as a means of preventing voter fraud, but there is little statistical evidence to support this claim. Some argue that these laws may have the unintended effect of suppressing voter turnout, particularly among minority groups.
The Controversial Impact of Voter ID Laws on Minority Voter Turnout in US Elections
One of the most widespread efforts by Republican law makers centers around voter ID laws. Voter ID laws require voters to present a government-issued photo ID in order to cast their ballot, and as of 2021, 36 states have passed and are currently enforcing some form of voter ID requirement for voting. Of these, 17 states have strict laws that require a government-issued ID, 5 have a lenient ID requirement, and 14 have variations of lenient and strict laws with varying degrees of requirements and exceptions.
While a 2014 study by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that ownership rates for government-issued IDs were high among both African American and White voters, critics argue that voter ID laws may still negatively impact minority groups. A 2012 study of voter turnout in Kansas and Tennessee found no significant change in overall turnout, but a 2017 analysis by the
Washington Post of voter turnout for elections between 2006 and 2016 found that in states with strict voter ID laws, the turnout gap between white and minority voters ranged from 5.1% to 13.2% during general elections and 11.6% to 18.8% during primaries. The difference in results between the GAO and Washington Post regarding voter turnout is likely attributed to the way both conducted their research. The GAO conducted its analysis of turnout in one state based on comparison with other states during one election cycle. The Washington Post analyzed turnout data covering a span of ten years. This means that although a snapshot in time reveals what appears to be no major impact on voter turnout, a historical analysis demonstrates that there is a very real impact on voter turnout for minority groups in states that have strict voter turnout laws.
Mail-In Voting Under Siege as Fraud Claims Clash with the Hard Facts in US Elections
Mail-in voting, also known as absentee voting, was originally established during the Civil War to allow American troops to participate in elections. Since then, it has expanded to the general population, with the state of Vermont leading the way in 1936. Today, 45 states and the District of Columbia offer some form of voting by mail. Six states have all-mail voting systems, and twenty states do not require an excuse for voters to request a mail-in ballot. California joined this group most recently in 2021.
In the 2020 elections, mail-in voting accounted for 45% of all votes cast. However, members of the conservative party launched a campaign to restrict access to mail-in voting, claiming it was more prone to voter fraud. From 2021 to 2023, Republican legislators
introduced 552 bills across the country that aimed to limit mail-in voting access, with 45 of those bills being enacted into law.
Opponents of expanded mail-in voting argue that it is more vulnerable to voter fraud. However, according to the Heritage Foundation, only six voter fraud cases were prosecuted following the 2020 election cycle, with just two related to mail-in ballots. Given that over 25 million mail-in ballots were returned, these cases of fraud accounted for a mere 0.000007% of total votes cast by mail. While allegations of voter fraud may have some validity, the numbers do not support claims of widespread fraud.
Therefore, there is no objective justification for further restricting mail-in voting. Such restrictions would infringe on the right of American voters to cast their ballots and would decrease overall turnout. Data from the 2022 elections shows that any restrictions to mail-in voting would disproportionately affect non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black voters over the age of 41.
The Bottom Line
Republican voter suppression tactics disguised as fraud prevention are a real threat to US elections and democracy. Voter ID laws, limitations on early voting, and restrictions on mail-in voting all have the potential to disproportionately impact minority groups and limit their ability to participate in elections. Despite claims of preventing voter fraud, there is little evidence to support such claims, and the actual incidence of fraud is minuscule. Any further attempts to restrict voting access will be an infringement on the fundamental right of American citizens to participate in the democratic process. It is imperative that lawmakers take steps to ensure that all citizens have equal and unfettered access to the ballot box.
